Trade ideas thread - Tuesday, 4 February, insightful charts, technical analysis, ideas

The news in the session from the US was that Trump had paused tariffs on Mexico and China for 30 days, which led to a fall for the US dollar and a bounce back for risk.

During the session here in Asia so far, the dollar has bounced back a little, with EUR, AUD, NZD, yen, GBP, CAD all off their highs.

News and data flow during the session has been very light, especially compared to the manic Monday we had yesterday.

If you don't mind me pricking the relief bubble that has pumped up a bit on the news that Mexico and Canada have both received a 30-day reprieve, there has been no such offer made to China. At least not yet.

The extra 10% tariff Trump said he will slap on China is due to take effect at 1201 US Eastern time on Tuesday, February 4, 2025, which is 0501 GMT. While Trump has said he'll be talking with Chinese President Xi 'within 24 hours' we have had no news that any conversation has taken place or any sign that the tariffs will not go ahead. Something to watch in the hours ahead.

AUD turned back from its early high ... the prospect of tariffs on China is still real.