West Virginia University guard Toby Okani / Christopher Hall - West Virginia on SI
The West Virginia Mountaineers (12-4, 3-2) welcome the No. 2 Iowa State Cyclones (15-1, 5-0) Saturday evening. Tip-off is set for 5:00 p.m. and the action will stream on ESPN+.
I get that feeling that tonight could be special for the Mountaineers. Everything is lined up perfectly for them - a sold-out crowd, the No. 2 team in the country in town, Jerry West Day, throwback uniforms. It just smells like an upset.
Unfortunately, I have the Cyclones pulling away in the final minutes to escape Morgantown with a win to remain one of the top teams in the country. Iowa State just does so many things well and the biggest concern for me is WVU allowing points off turnovers, which was a big issue in the loss on Wednesday to Houston.
Plus, Iowa State does a really good job of getting to the free throw line, ranking 19th nationally in attempts per game. West Virginia, on the other hand, tends to put people on the line due to racking up a bunch of sloppy fouls and being too aggressive in the paint, trying to poke the ball away.
West Virginia plays hard and stays right with the Cyclones until the final five minutes.
Prediction record: 13-3
In his third season in Ames, TJ Otzelberger has arguably assembled the best team in Iowa State basketball history and has guided the Cyclones to a program-best No. 2 ranking in the AP Poll.
Iowa State averages a league-high 85.4 points per game with five Cyclones averaging double figures. Guard Curtis Jones leads the way, ranking second in the Big 12 in scoring at 17.8 ppg. He was doing his damage coming off the bench until he made his first start Wednesday night in the dominating win against Kansas after Otzelberger shuffled the starting lineup following an injury to forward Milan Momcilovic.
The Cyclones, again, have one of the best defenses in the Big 12 behind a conference-high 9.94 steals per game, leading the way to a league-best 5.69 turnover margin.
Javon Small will undoubtedly need to have a big game. Although he is the league's leading scorer (19.4 ppg), he will not need to have a career-high, which if he matches his 31-point output against Gonzaga, the Mountaineers likely win. It will be the supporting cast that will need to step up to pull off the upset.
West Virginia is honoring Jerry West in front of a sold-out Coliseum crowd, and with the aura of West and a raucous Mountaineer crowd, I believe the Mountaineers rise to the challenge and grab their fourth ranked win of the season 81-80.
Prediction record: 11-5
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