Good Sunday, everyone. We have a really nice day taking shape across the Commonwealth and we can consider this a small break in the active pattern we've been in this November. The week ahead sees that active pattern continue with the chance for some winter weather to join in on the fun.

Temps today hit the low to middle 60s with a mix of sun and clouds.

The pleasant temps take us into Monday as clouds thicken ahead of our big weather maker that begins to impact our region Monday night and Tuesday. That's when a cold front sweeps eastward into the region and slows down.

A huge upper low then swings into the region Wednesday, spawning a surface low just ahead of it. That should result in high winds and showers developing. This low then deepens to our north and northeast and may pinwheel back at us Thursday into Friday. That's when rain and snow will be possible across our region. Is this just the chance for a few flakes or can we get some early season slushy accumulations? It's still too soon to tell as we have to figure out the exact evolution of this whole scenario.

The Canadian continues to be the most consistent with the upcoming storm system and brings the best chance for some accumulations into our region Thursday into Friday. It also has another system dropping in with the chance for some flakes behind that next weekend...

As I explained in my last update, we are to the point where the GFS bias of being too far east and too progressive with everything is coming into play. That's very evident in the latest run of the model...

If you recall, the GFS nearly lost the recent heavy rainfall we just had and only brought it back a few days before. All because of the progressive nature of the model from a certain time period away from storm systems.

The EURO is more like the Canadian but much more on the lighter side with the snow potential...

Thanksgiving week starts out with pleasant temps, but the pattern looks to turn very active once again with the threat for a few big systems sweeping across the country over the long holiday weekend.

The ensembles continue to show a trough returning to the east during Thanksgiving weekend into the first few days of December...

The EURO WEEKLIES now go all the way out to the final day of 2024 and it's showing the potential for a colder than normal holiday period. Check out the 7 day temp departures from normal from Christmas Even through New Year's Eve...

I'll have another update later today. Have a great Sunday and take care.