There's a bit of good news for people stocking up for this year's Thanksgiving dinner - for the second straight year, consumers will see a dip in their grocery bills. The 39 annual American Farm Bureau Federation Thanksgiving dinner survey finds that the classic feast for 10 will cost $58.08, down five percent from last year. However, this is still 19 percent higher than five years ago.
The Thanksgiving Dinner Survey
For one week each year, volunteer shoppers from all 50 states and Puerto Rico visit their local grocery store (or local store's website) to survey the prices of items used in a classic Thanksgiving feast. Since 1986, these volunteers have collected price data on turkey, cubed stuffing, sweet potatoes, dinner rolls, frozen peas, fresh cranberries, celery, carrots, pumpkin pie mix and crusts, whipping cream and whole milk.
The classic dinner's grocery bill is a mixed bag of savings and squeezes. Seven items dropped in price this year, including turkey, sweet potatoes, frozen peas, a vegetable tray of carrots and celery, pumpkin pie mix, pie crusts and whole milk. However, the remaining four items -dinner rolls, fresh cranberries, whipping cream and cubed stuffing - rose in price.
Prices for ham, Russet potatoes and frozen green beans were added to the survey in 2018 to reflect more Thanksgiving favorites, with all of them showing a year-over-year reduction in price. When including the additional items, the meal cost rose to $77.34, or $7.73 per person, with more leftovers, of course. The updated Thanksgiving dinner nearly doubled the cost savings of the classic basket - an 8.7 percent decrease in price from 2023.
Turkey - Carving the Grocery Bill
Over the span of the annual survey, turkey has accounted for an average of 43 percent of the total dinner cost. This year is right on the mark - a 16-pound turkey accounts for 44.2 percent of the classic 10-person feast. Given its large share of the total dinner bill, differences in the grocery bill year-over-year closely follow the change in turkey prices. This year's six percent decrease in turkey prices is a bit of an anomaly. According to USDA's Turkeys Raised report, farmers raised 205 million turkeys in 2024, down six percent from last year and the lowest since 1985. Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza is responsible for the decline in turkeys raised.
The Rest of the Thanksgiving Dinner Table
Most ingredients in the survey decreased in price including fresh vegetables and the turkey. Overall price volatility in vegetables pulled fresh vegetable prices down, including those on the celery and carrot relish tray. Favorable weather conditions for dairy cows and feedstuffs led to a 14 percent decrease in the price for a gallon of whole milk, although milk prices varied significantly between regions across the country.
The largest increases in Thanksgiving dinner this year come from processed products. Dinner rolls and cubed stuffing both increased over eight percent from 2023. Nonfood inflation and labor shortages have driven up costs for partners across the food supply chain. Fresh cranberries had the next-largest price increase at 12 percent.
Regional Differences - More than Dressing vs. Stuffing
Thanksgiving staples, and what you call them, are not the only things that vary as you move across the United States. For those celebrating in the west, grocery bills will be at least 14 percent steeper than the rest of the country: $67.05 for a party of 10. The other regions of the U.S. are lower by $8 or more. Southern dinners will cost the least at $56.81, followed closely by the northeast at $57.36 and $58.90 in the midwest.
When looking at the expanded Thanksgiving basket, the West also has a divide from the rest of the country. The South, Northeast and Midwest can add ham, Russet potatoes and green beans for a basket total of $81.07, $81.37 and $83.04, respectively. However, the expanded Thanksgiving basket in the West costs $93.33, over a dollar more per person.