A mistake-filled loss to Kansas has reduced BYU's margin for error to zero. On Saturday, BYU will travel to Arizona for a potential elimination game against the Arizona State Sun Devils. Arizona State, who is 8-2 and still in the hunt for a Big 12 title, is coming off a convincing win over Kansas State. ESPN FPI predicted BYU vs Arizona State and updated BYU's projected win total for the 2024 season.

BYU still controls its own destiny to the Big 12 championship game. A loss to Arizona State would take that away, and BYU would need some help to make the Big 12 title game.

FPI gives BYU a 44.2% chance to beat Arizona State.

In the preseason, FPI projected BYU would win 4.8 games. BYU surpassed that projection in five games. Now, FPI projects BYU to go 10.3-1.7. Below are the game-by-game predictions.

For the purposes of this article, we'll define a "special season" as 11 or more regular season wins. Winning 11 games will get BYU into the Big 12 championship and potentially a spot in the College Football Playoff as well. FPI gives BYU a 38.2% chance to win 11 games and secure a spot in the Big 12 championship.

9 wins or more - 100%

10 wins or more - 92.5%

11 wins or more - 38.2%

12 wins (undefeated) - 0%

BYU dropped three spots in the FPI rankings to 30 after the loss to Kansas. Colorado, who dominated Utah, is the highest-ranked team in the Big 12 according to the metrics. The Cougars are ranked 5th out of 16 Big 12 teams.

In terms of conference title hopes, Colorado was the biggest winner of the weekend. The Buffaloes are the Big 12 favorites according to FPI.

BYU and Colorado are the favorites to make the Big 12 title game at this point. Arizona State could surpass BYU as the favorite the face Colorado if they beat BYU on Saturday.

Since BYU has a strong strength of record, the Cougars have a decent opportunity to make the College Football Playoff. BYU has a 39.1% chance to make the College Football Playoff according to FPI. That's the best odds in the conference.